ITS past 6:00 Lil-Inferno has failed us. GG.

He never specified a time zone. It is only 3:45 where I am.

Well in fairness, his first deadline was in EST so it should be assumed all other times will be too

And he didn't say he would be on at 6 PM, he just said night actions after that wouldn't be valid.

That's a ridiculously important albeit obvious thing to consider, and it pains me when I see people complaining because they expect a night post to be already written a minute after players are allowed to choose what happens in the night post.

Exactly. When hosting Mafia on Facebook, I usually don't have the day post completely written for an hour or so after the night actions come in. And every time I try to write a post in advance, someone changes something so that I have to rewrite the entire thing.

Oh god the suspense.

Tik...toc ..tik..toc ..tic...toc
3 People will have died by the end of this segment.
Hopefully those 3 do not include ME.
Anywho 327+ posts before DAY 2!!!!!!! new record?

How do you know 3 people will have died...?

Mafia have a killing power of 3? I guess there could be 4 from the mayor (boondock saint) killing someone..

We have a doctor and two police officers, I openly admitted to dodging, and you still think every hit will land?

Chances are high for them all to hit (44%)

44%? No it's not. Remember that hits and protect actions are used based on strategy and suspicions, not pure chance. Depending on how well townies act, most likely that chance can only be around the 20s%. Not to mention EVERY townie has Dodge. And don't forget mafia killing each other

oh all townies have dodge?...

I'm not gonna bother checking the math but I'm pretty sure that "high chance" has to encompass more than 50%. In fact I'd say that >50% is only "likely".

I'd like to pick apart how you got that percentage.

First, there are 16 possible targets, 3 of which are mafia. We can assume two are not targeting the same person, but if the mafia families aren't working together, there's a chance the two families target the same player.

Second, the mayor has most roles and can distribute evenly to protect one person, and jail/protect two more. If a mafia is jailed, they cannot attack at all. If a mafia's target is jailed, the mafia will fail to kill the target.

Third, all town-aligned roles have a dodge action. I used mine this night, which increases the chance for the mayor to successfully organize to jail a mafia member or a potential target.

You're free to explain how you came up with 44%, but I highly doubt you even considered these things in your formula.

I'm not the greatest at probability, but I believe the numbers would be close to 25% for all mafia hits to land if the families are working together, and 22% if they aren't. (I wouldn't stake anything on this math, though.) This would be ignoring informed decisions and going off of randomly distributed targets.

Well Roy you did think of all the possibilities of the game mechanic but you'd forgot the higher level targets... these are people that are most active during games and thus these people are more likely to be targeted becuase they will be the ones to dissect clues. Of course these high level targets will most likely be jailed or dodge as they know they going to get hit first.

Counting in all the factors of psychology the odds lower to 18%... counting in the killing power of the entire town most likely 1 or 2 players will be dead by the end of the night... however factoring in the occasional gamble of people using random.org for their first hit it could be has high as 3 or 4.

I was going to do clue dissection but the post isn't up yet :[.

Uh, no, I didn't forget this factor. In fact, I explicitly mentioned it:
I purposefully excluded it because I have no means of drawing calculations from such a thing. I don't have a degree in sociology or psychology, and I'm not sure if any other active member here has one. Not to mention you'd have to know each player on a relatively personal level and know who is on which side for this to have any meaning.

How did you calculate this number? I am genuinely interested (unless you just pulled it out of your hat). Is there a way to calculate this without going into specific psychological attributes of each participant and I'm just over-thinking it?

Edit: There's also the fact that not all night actions may be submitted (i.e. afk players). Calculating a percentage seems pointless.

Post has been edited 1 time(s), last time on Aug 7 2011, 1:38 am by Roy.

So we you argue about it regardless.

Wait, roles like policeman and detective can use dodge? I thought that was reserved for regular "villagers".

If you could the list of Town related power roles youd notice that there are NO regular townies.