Staredit Network > Forums > Null > Topic: Mafia: The Trump Card
Mafia: The Trump Card
Sep 9 2012, 4:56 am
By: lil-Inferno
Pages: < 1 « 11 12 13 14 1538 >
 

Sep 13 2012, 2:51 am Lanthanide Post #241



Quote from DevliN
I trust him every game even when I shouldn't. So take from that what you will.
You sound like a sucker.

I change my vote to Roy.



None.

Sep 13 2012, 3:04 am DevliN Post #242

OVERWATCH STATUS GO

Quote from Lanthanide
Quote from DevliN
I trust him every game even when I shouldn't. So take from that what you will.
You sound like a sucker.

I change my vote to Roy.
Perhaps. I just like trusting the people that seem to consistently present intelligent clue and behavioral analysis.



\:devlin\: Currently Working On: \:devlin\:
My Overwatch addiction.

Sep 13 2012, 3:06 am Generalpie Post #243

Staredit Puckwork

Quote from DevliN
Quote from Lanthanide
Quote from DevliN
I trust him every game even when I shouldn't. So take from that what you will.
You sound like a sucker.

I change my vote to Roy.
Perhaps. I just like trusting the people that seem to consistently present intelligent clue and behavioral analysis.
This.

And are the bodyguards public?



None.

Sep 13 2012, 3:07 am Dem0n Post #244

ᕕ( ᐛ )ᕗ

No, the Mayor chooses them secretly, and they do not know each other.




Sep 13 2012, 3:25 am Sacrieur Post #245

Still Napping

Well, if we look into this.

Roy was willing to endorse Wing Zero. This gives us a nice logic table. T = Town, M = Mafia

Roy M | Wing Zero M
Roy T | Wing Zero M
Roy M | Wing Zero T
Roy T | Wing Zero T

Since Roy had no knowledge of what people would do, especially with so many smart players on the board, it is a safe assumption that Roy would not have endorsed a townie if he had been mafia.

Thus, it's 66⅔ % likely that Roy is a townie, and 66⅔ % likely that Wing Zero is mafia. Out of 24 players we can create a range of 5-6 of them being mafia. A player has a probability of 0.21 - 0.25 that he is mafia. We can then calculate Roy's statistical chance that he is mafia.

(2 × 5)/(3 × 24) - (2 × 6)/(3 × 24)
10/72 - 12/72
0.14 - 0.17

Which is definitely lower than anyone else, making him the mathematically safest bet.



None.

Sep 13 2012, 3:32 am Sacrieur Post #246

Still Napping

I say we kill tikels.



None.

Sep 13 2012, 3:36 am OlimarandLouie Post #247



I shall change my vote from DevliN to Roy for mayor.



None.

Sep 13 2012, 3:39 am Roy Post #248

An artist's depiction of an Extended Unit Death

Quote from Sacrieur
Since Roy had no knowledge of what people would do, especially with so many smart players on the board, it is a safe assumption that Roy would not have endorsed a townie if he had been mafia.
You forget that I'm a seasoned player who would probably make these kinds of risks to acquire a better long-term status with the town. A townie as mayor isn't the end of the mafia (see last game), and I value public support over raw power. Don't get too comfortable with someone this early (I've made that mistake before and costed the town the game because of it).

But I do love truth tables!




Sep 13 2012, 3:45 am Aristocrat Post #249



Dem0nS1ayer, Mouse, Raccoon and Kame are Mafia. Calling it now.



None.

Sep 13 2012, 3:49 am Roy Post #250

An artist's depiction of an Extended Unit Death

Quote from Aristocrat
Dem0nS1ayer, Mouse, Raccoon and Kame are Mafia. Calling it now.
Good to get that in while you're still allowed to post in here. :)




Sep 13 2012, 3:49 am Dem0n Post #251

ᕕ( ᐛ )ᕗ

Save me, Roy. :massimo:




Sep 13 2012, 3:54 am Observer12425 Post #252



Chopping block initiate!



None.

Sep 13 2012, 4:06 am UnholyUrine Post #253



I'll change my vote to Roy...

seems like the sensible thing to do.



None.

Sep 13 2012, 4:07 am TiKels Post #254



Quote from UnholyUrine
I'll change my vote to Roy...

seems like the sensible thing to do.
You're past the deadline, just saying.



"If a topic that clearly interest noone needs to be closed to underline the "we don't want this here" message, is up to debate."

-NudeRaider

Sep 13 2012, 4:16 am Roy Post #255

An artist's depiction of an Extended Unit Death

I'm the Rogue Engineer. Good work, town.

I've run through everything and ended up with 6 potential candidates to start this game's lynching with. Let's hope I didn't pick the wrong one.




Sep 13 2012, 4:29 am lil-Inferno Post #256

Just here for the pie

VOTER :: CANDIDATE

poison_us :: poison_us (1) <-
UnholyUrine :: Raccoon (1) <-
BiOAtK :: BiOAtK (1) <-
TiKels :: Wing Zero (1) <-
Fire_Kame :: DevliN <-
FaRTy1billion :: DevliN
Aristocrat :: DevliN
LoTu)S :: DevliN
Observer12425 :: DevliN (5)
Raitaki :: Roy <-
Mouse :: Roy
rayNimagi :: Roy
DevliN :: Roy
I Iz LEET :: Roy
Positively :: Roy
Raccoon :: Roy
Generalpie :: Roy
Wing Zero :: Roy
Roy :: Roy
Azrael :: Roy
Sacrieur :: Roy
Lanthanide :: Roy
OlimarandLouie :: Roy (14)

Winner: Roy
Votes accounted for: 23/24

DAY 1 END

With very little political opposition nearing the end of his campaign, Roy makes his way up to former Mayor lil-Inferno's podium to swear himself in. Afterwards, he rallies the town with a charismatic call to arms against the Mafia. Nearing the end of the speech, a guillotine is erected upon the stage, and Mayor Roy concludes his oration with the announcement that someone in the crowd will have to die. An eerie silence sweeps across the crowd, with a few hushed remarks being made. No one is remotely certain who he will choose, or how wise his decision will be for the future of the town.

Finally, Roy lifts his index finger, and points at LoTu)S. Two men grab LoTu)S by the shoulders, and lift him up to the stage. His head is slammed on the chopping block by one of the men. The crowd is in shock. LoTu)S pleads his innocence, but it's too late. The blade soars down but doesn't make a clean cut, and gore spurts everywhere from LoTu)S' now visible throat. Eventually his body gives way, and LoTu)S is dead.

NIGHT 1 START

Those with night actions, PM them to me. Night 1 will end on September 14 at 6:00 PM EST.




Sep 13 2012, 4:34 am Roy Post #257

An artist's depiction of an Extended Unit Death

Fuck.

Edit: excerpt for rational:
Lotus originally abstains, but later edits the post to throw down a vote for Devlin, which ties him with me. This is a red flag: Devlin may be mafia yet, and/or Lotus is taking orders.

I assure you I was weighing options. Sorry.




Sep 13 2012, 4:36 am Lanthanide Post #258



Well by random chance it's more likely you'd pick a townie than a mafia. I guess you went with the "didn't say much so must be trying to keep a low profile" theory?



None.

Sep 13 2012, 4:49 am poison_us Post #259

Back* from the grave

Damn son.

Unrelated:
Quote from lil-Inferno
** NEWS **
Sign-ups are now closed!
Night 1.
Erm, is there supposed to be a url here?





Sep 13 2012, 4:52 am lil-Inferno Post #260

Just here for the pie

Quote from poison_us
Unrelated:
Quote from lil-Inferno
** NEWS **
Sign-ups are now closed!
Night 1.
Erm, is there supposed to be a url here?
Nope. It's simply to indicate that it's currently night 1.




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