So I won't be on here tonight until the voting has already ended, but let me remind you all that this guy you want to lynch is a person, and killing an innocent person makes you no better than the Umbrella Security Service. Can you live with the burden of knowing you might be wrong? His cries of agony will haunt you for the remainder of your life. And most importantly, Azrael wouldn't make shadow USS-aligned after what shadow did in my game.

Another way to look at this, is that we've got 11 people left. If we say all 11 people are equally likely to be USS, then we have a 1/11 chance of lynching a USS member, leaving us with 10 people.

If, on the other hand, we don't lynch anyone, then tonight the USS may kill a genuine townie (since they know who they are) and we'd be left with 10 people, but this time with 1 genuine townie down. I guess we could get a townie in our lynching and have 10 people left, and then the USS kill someone again tonight and we've left with only 9, which would be worse.

But if there are a few people we can definitely rule out as being not USS, then our initial odds of lynching success are much better.

In the case of shadow, he's claimed project director, but there's no way to verify this claim, and he made the claim after the project director role PM had been posted in this thread. On the other hand, as a project director he gives 2 votes in any night (assume he isn't sabotaged), and this goes towards helping town outnumber mafia for lynch votes.

In short: unless research clues suddenly become useful (which I doubt, given how monumentally useless they've all been so far) I don't really see that we're ever going to be in a position to 'know' who is USS and who is not, we're just going to have to make blind guesses. The longer we leave it before we attempt to lynch mafia, the lower our chances of ultimate success, I think.

Good enough for me. In all honesty, I didn't really want to lynch shadow (take a look, I tried to last-second ensure there was no lynch, then I noticed it was PM not AM and I raged). I figured we'd lynch him because he was inactive and I doubted the USS would actually let us get a No Lynch up. I also kind of hoped that the USS would vote for a townsman, and since it seems we are holding the noose and letting a USS walk into it, I (correctly) thought he would vote for shadow. In any case,
I'm going to laugh if anyone takes that line starting "I also kind of..." seriously.

Quote from poison_us

I change my vote to No Lynch.

We should all post whomever we believe to be guaranteed (NOT BY ROLE PM VERIFICATION) (I emphasize the word guaranteed) town and then simply use process of elimination, voting patterns (who, when in the process (as in start/end/middle, where middle is most suspicious more often than not), how often), activity in the thread, and other aspects to make an educated guess who is mafia. We won't be able to know, but sure as fuck beats relying on RANDOM guessing, No Lynches until the town loses, or astronomically impossible clues.

You decide. I implore all of you to do this.

Me and imago are proven townies.
Within reason I think roy is townie due to ridiculous amount of organization he did for the town.

I'm going to edit this when I get home. Hopefully I will be able to make a few stabs at who I think is innocent. Going off of this I have to look at 8 different players.

Post has been edited 1 time(s), last time on Nov 14 2011, 9:52 pm by TiKels.

Me and poison_us are confirmed town. I believe Roy to be town-sided as well.

I change back to No Lynch

I sent much the same message to Roy last night.

My short list of people who I don't entirely trust then ended up as:
Olimar, Echo and Shadow. Ez is slightly untrusted although I don't believe anyone could make up the bullshit that Azrael passes off as "clues" so consistently.

The problem with making these lists public is that the real USS can see who is most suspicious about them, and then target them first.

I am also most likely innocent as I've posted most my pms and they are error free either meaning i have a proxy or am really the researcher.

Researcher shit isn't hard to fake. Especially since nobody can interpret them anyway. Also, what would having a proxy have to do with... nevermind...

You are under the same level of scrutiny as everyone else.

It is because of my bad grammer that makes it more likely...

I vote OlimarandLouie again. The Pathologist cannot fail to autopsy a body in the manner he did. Therefore, I believe him to be lying about his night PM. This further leads me to come to the conclusion I came to last lynch cycle: Olimar is USS-aligned.

I'll throw my lot in.

I also vote OlimarandLouie.

I've always suspected him but I never really had any good evidence (or any evidence at all).
I'll vote for him once I hear other people's opinions.

Well, normally in Mafia if you do the math, it is always a bad decision for the town to not lynch anyone. However, in this game, we have a lot of protection and the capability of sealing off players, which would theoretically weed out the remaining USS. This means that a No Lynch is not necessarily a bad option if the town is organized in their night actions and we have no idea who the remaining USS could be. While my primary accusations of Olimar were unfounded (and seemingly trollish), it was completely natural for players to disregard it, and unfortunately it didn't give me any additional information. However, under the circumstances of last night, in combination with the "result" Olimar received, there is reason to suspect him of not being the actual Pathologist. Upon review of his supposed night PMs, they are word-for-word copies of another Pathologist's results with the name swapped out. I believe what happened last night was that the other Pathologist tried to target a player and was sealed off from that player, and Olimar copied the PM and put in "Riney's corpse" as a substitute. Now, the only way for this theory to me accurate is if my previous theory that the Beguiler is still alive, and it very well may be Olimar considering this new development. Even if you guys don't think Olimar is USS, I'm going to be asking the Hackers to seal him into the smaller of the two groups for the potential he is the Assassin. I don't think he's the last remaining Assassin because of my Beguiler theory, but the chances last night's PM (and previous PMs after examination) are faked are high, meaning he's working for the USS.

TL;DR: Stay on No Lynch if you have no idea who USS could be. Olimar's night PM supports my Beguiler theory and incriminates him as USS-aligned under that theory.

It's kind of the same reasoning I used for DemonSlayer.

I vote olimarandlouie

I vote OlimarandLouie.

Here is my response to that. Yes I lied trying to autopsy Riney. I actually was blood testing poison_us, to help keep him alive should he be visited. My decision to lie about that turned out to be a poor one, I did intend to really autopsy Riney tonight seeing as no attempt on my life succeeded last night when I faked the autopsy.





By the way Roy, exactly what is your role, since Aristocrat never told me?

Everyone who voted for me needs to get their thick skulls in order.

Aristocrat also told me to try to get TiKels lynched, because "He is not to be trusted"

Getting pretty close to the wire.

Re: Olimar: townies lying is exactly why Aristocrat ended up killing so many of them.

All researchers are genuine. One of us posted their first initial role letter with the added sentence that couldn't just be made up. And a USS faking a researcher and then posting crap hasn't happened and would be easy to spot. Also what's with people saying "this person is real this one is fake" when none of you showed us that you actually are?

In the event that I cannot re-cast my vote:

Azrael, I vote for whoever Roy casts his public vote for by the end of voting for this day. At the moment this is Olimar, but please amend this to the new target should Roy change his vote. Unless it's me, then I vote Roy