After much consideration, I change my vote to Dapperdan, and im locking it.

Final answer?

Anyone's odds of being mafia last game was about 20.6%. This game (assuming there are 5 mafia members) there is about a 16.1% chance of being mafia. The odds of being mafia in both games is about 3.3%.

What the hell is with all this gambler's fallacy?

IDK, false logic to tricking us to believing they are townies when they are MAFIA.

He still has the 16.1% chance, but shhh!

Edit: And in response to your question, what is with you all seeming to ignore the possibility of Nude being mafia?

Post has been edited 1 time(s), last time on Feb 28 2008, 2:55 am by NerdyTerdy.

Seperate unrelated rolls.

E.g. the chance of rolling two sixes at once is 1/36.

But if you roll a die twice, the chance of getting a six on the second throw is ALWAYS 1/6.

Yeah, yeah, I know. I was trying to make a convincing argument for him for anyone who didn't know, but you guys wouldn't shut up >:-0. My question goes unanswered.

Uh huh...
Nerdy + Dan = mafia?

Because he sent me his PM.

Paravin. :: NudeRaider
isolatedpurity :: NudeRaider
Zycorax :: Dapperdan
JaFF :: Dapperdan
JordanN :: NudeRaider
Loveless :: Dapperdan
Greo :: NudeRaider
A_of-s_t :: WoAHorde
cheeze :: NudeRaider
l)ark_ssj9kevin :: WoAHorde
// 10
Dapperdan :: NerdyTerdy
Darkling :: NerdyTerdy
EzDay281 :: NudeRaider (6)
Heegu :: Dapperdan
NudeRaider :: chuiu
DTBK :: chuiu
lil-inferno :: Dapperdan
WoAHorde :: Dapperdan
NerdyTerdy :: Dapperdan
Doodan :: Dapperdan (8)
// 20
Dark_Marine_123 :: Dapperdan

Abstain: Hynk (I'm assuming you abstained based on your post), Vi3t-X

23 of 30 votes accounted for.

Day end: < 48 hours, possibly < 24.

Liek the drama, moose?

Also: Vote Nude!

There were no PMs...

Hah, I knew that had a name

Probability retards indeed.

Quote from isolatedpurity

Uh huh...
Nerdy + Dan = mafia?

I'm willing to believe that.

I put my vote back on NudeRaider, since nobody is voting for chu. I am willing to trust him, since his MID is over the requisite number.

Basing everything on this one clue is retarded! I'm beginning to think that all of you who continue using that as a basis for him not being mafia are mafia, as well as him. Don't put all of your eggs in one basket , especially one that isn't very sturdy.

I vote Dapperdan for president.

I had 9 votes there, moose. (although now I have 10) Also, l)ark_ssj9kevin abstained, and you didn't include that either.

I change my vote to Dapperdan.

I have this horrible feeling that someone the community is trusting is mafia.

Well you're wrong. I don't see what you're so on about. There's nothing that points to me being mafia more than anyone else. The main idea of mayor elections is to vote one of the best players mayor, since everyone usually seems equally plausible as a mafia this early.