DTBK, if I die you have to write something about my extraordinary efforts to put analysis tools in the hands of the townsfolk to combat the joker. And I should probably get a medal from commissioner gordon or something too.
Probability Calculator link:
http://cid-681c2250300dd052.skydrive.live.com/self.aspx/Public/MafiaCalc.zipI ran it with these parameters:
total pop = 29 (mafia landed 5 hits successfully + 1 lynch)
batman = 1
joker = 1
faction mafia = 6 (assuming we didn't successfully lynch a mafia)
mafia doctor = 1
patrolmen = 3
boondock = 1
pardoner = 1
doctor = 1 (one down, but just for predictions sake)
director = 3 (one down, for predictions sake)
and the results:
Probability of at least 1 Faction Mafia dying is: 38.4615 <-- crucial one in my opinion
Probability of at least 1 Mafia Doctor dying is: 7.12251
Probability of at least 1 Patrolmen dying is: 20.5128
Probability of at least 1 Boondock dying is: 7.12251
Probability of at least 1 Pardoner dying is: 7.12251
Probability of at least 1 Doctor dying is: 7.12251
Probability of at least 1 Director dying is: 20.5128
Probability of at least 1 Regular Townie dying is: 66.6667
Probability of at least 1 Faction Townie dying is: 90.8832
Probability of at least 1 Special Townie dying is: 58.4046
Probability of any given individual being mafia: 20.6897 <-- crucial for comparison
change of parameters to reflect successfully lynching a mafia yields:
Probability of at least 1 Faction Mafia dying is: 32.7635 <--crucial
Probability of at least 1 Mafia Doctor dying is: 7.12251
Probability of at least 1 Patrolmen dying is: 20.5128
Probability of at least 1 Boondock dying is: 7.12251
Probability of at least 1 Pardoner dying is: 7.12251
Probability of at least 1 Doctor dying is: 7.12251
Probability of at least 1 Director dying is: 20.5128
Probability of at least 1 Regular Townie dying is: 70.3704
Probability of at least 1 Faction Townie dying is: 91.7379
Probability of at least 1 Special Townie dying is: 58.4046
Probability of any given individual being mafia: 17.2414 <--- comparison crucial
Run it yourselves and play around with the parameters.
Post has been edited 2 time(s), last time on Oct 13 2009, 12:18 am by Vrael.
None.