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SEN Mafia XV: Gotham City
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Oct 3 2009, 8:43 pm
By: DT_Battlekruser
Pages: < 1 « 14 15 16 17 1882 >
 

Oct 12 2009, 10:46 pm Corbo Post #301

ALL PRAISE YOUR SUPREME LORD CORBO

I agree that we let Vrael live. The odds are basically against him but he's a valuable player, I think the joker knows it which is why he targetted him first. Wonder if the joker would move on targeting posers or continue with vrael? would be lulz if the joker was like "lolwut attack missed" *keeps targeting*



fuck you all

Oct 12 2009, 10:51 pm Vrael Post #302



Probability Calculator source code, C++
#include <iostream>


void PrintType(int type)
{
    using namespace std;

    switch (type)
    {
        case 1:
            cout << "Total Population";
            break;
        case 2:
            cout << "Batman";
            break;
        case 3:
            cout << "Joker";
            break;
        case 4:
            cout << "Faction Mafia";
            break;
        case 5:
            cout << "Mafia Doctor";
            break;
        case 6:
            cout << "Patrolmen";
            break;
        case 7:
            cout << "Boondock";
            break;
        case 8:
            cout << "Pardoner";
            break;
        case 9:
            cout << "Doctor";
            break;
        case 10:
            cout << "Director";
            break;
        case 11:
            cout << "Regular Townie";
            break;
        case 12:
            cout << "Faction Townie";
            break;
        case 13:
            cout << "Special Townie";
            break;
        default:
            cout << "whoopsies";
    }
}




int main()
{
    using namespace std;

    double player_count[20];
    double probability[20];
    for(int i = 0; i <=19; i++)
    {
        player_count[i] = 1337;
        probability[i] = 1337;
    }
    /*
    index 1 = total pop
    index 2 = batman
    index 3 = joker
    index 4 = faction mafia
    index 5 = mafia doctor
    index 6 = patrolmen
    index 7 = boondock
    index 8 = pardoner
    index 9 = doctor
    index 10 = director
    index 11 = regular townie
    index 12 = faction townie
    index 13 = special townie
    */

   

    cout << "Input Numbers of Players" << endl;
    for(int i = 1; i <= 10; i++)
    {
        cout << endl;
        PrintType(i);
        cout << ": ";
        cin >> player_count[i];
    }

    player_count[12] = player_count[1] - player_count[4] - player_count[3];                                                        //faction townie = total pop - mafia faction - joker
    player_count[13] = player_count[10] + player_count[9] + player_count[8] + player_count[7] + player_count[6] + player_count[2]; //special townie is sum of special roles
    player_count[11] = player_count[12] - player_count[13];                                                                        //regular townie = faction townie - special townie

   


    /*
    probability that a given group will die is based on table

    ------group------other
    group---W----------X
    other---Y----------Z

    group/group + 2*other/group = probability at least 1 of that group will get hit
    W + 2*X = W + X + Y = W + 2*Y
    we exclude other/other since group is not part of that

    */
   

    double W;
    double X;

    for(int i = 4; i <= 13; i++)
    {
        W = (player_count[i]/(player_count[1] - player_count[2] - player_count[3]))*           //group/population - bat&joker
            ((player_count[i]-1)/(player_count[1] - player_count[2] - player_count[3] - 1));   //group lost a member/population lost a member

        X = (player_count[i]/(player_count[1] - player_count[2] - player_count[3]))*                                                                  //group/population
            ((player_count[1] - player_count[i] - 1 - player_count[2] - player_count[3])/(player_count[1] - player_count[2] - player_count[3] - 1));  //other - dead player - joker&bat / total-joker&bat
       
        probability[i] = W + 2*X;

        cout << endl
            << "Probability of at least 1 ";
        PrintType(i);
        cout << " dying is: "
            << 100*probability[i];
    }

    cout << endl
        << "Probability of any given individual being mafia: "
        << 100 * player_count[4] / player_count[1];

    cout << endl;
    return 0;
}

I'll compile a .exe and link to it shortly.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 10:53 pm Jack Post #303

>be faceless void >mfw I have no face

Quote from name:Raccoon
i didnt understand vrael's probablities at all, but i say we let vrael live unless someone with a nite hit can kill him, cause losing our lynch is horrible, and the random hits dont sound that bad.

and why the hell do people think im mafia?
i dont think you should lynch me or anyone else just based on what they have jokingly said.
but now im suspicious about echo and darksnow being so close together and trying to get me lynched w/o any clues. (not saying i would like either of you two lynched though, so dont post something like "you are hypocrite!"
Mafia always post longish counter posts. Vote RACCOON for chaos the win!



Red classic.

"In short, their absurdities are so extreme that it is painful even to quote them."

Oct 12 2009, 11:02 pm Generalpie Post #304

Staredit Puckwork

Quote from payne
Damn, I'm out... gg for me :(
I was out for 3 days for some camping with friends and when I come back: I'm kicked of the game >.<
Anyways, humans can make errors, I pardon you, DT_BK ^^

If I was a townie, I'd have talked about 4 points, but meh, it seems like you'll have to do without me being accused by Shocko :P
going campin for 2 days this weekend ^^



None.

Oct 12 2009, 11:02 pm rayNimagi Post #305



Quote from Vrael
Probability of at least 1 Regular Townie dying is: 0.712121
Probability of at least 1 Faction Townie dying is: 0.92803
Probability of at least 1 Special Townie dying is: 0.579545

What is a Faction Townie?



Win by luck, lose by skill.

Oct 12 2009, 11:05 pm darksnow Post #306



faction townie are all the town aligned people.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 11:06 pm Vrael Post #307



Basically what darksnow said, all town-aligned roles. Batman, directors, doctors, normal townies, ect.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 11:09 pm Generalpie Post #308

Staredit Puckwork

Quote from Vrael
Without Night Hits Included; total population = 35, no deaths yet
Probability of at least 1 Faction Mafia dying is: 0.323864
Probability of at least 1 Mafia Doctor dying is: 0.0587121
Probability of at least 1 Patrolmen dying is: 0.170455
Probability of at least 1 Boondock dying is: 0.0587121
Probability of at least 1 Pardoner dying is: 0.0587121
Probability of at least 1 Doctor dying is: 0.11553
Probability of at least 1 Director dying is: 0.223485
Probability of at least 1 Regular Townie dying is: 0.712121
Probability of at least 1 Faction Townie dying is: 0.92803
Probability of at least 1 Special Townie dying is: 0.579545
Probability of any given individual being mafia: 0.171429


Can you guys think of any other probabilities that I should include in the program?

you forgot the statistic of DTBK raining lightning bolts on a non- believer :P



None.

Oct 12 2009, 11:33 pm Vrael Post #309



DTBK, if I die you have to write something about my extraordinary efforts to put analysis tools in the hands of the townsfolk to combat the joker. And I should probably get a medal from commissioner gordon or something too.

Probability Calculator link: http://cid-681c2250300dd052.skydrive.live.com/self.aspx/Public/MafiaCalc.zip

I ran it with these parameters:
total pop = 29 (mafia landed 5 hits successfully + 1 lynch)
batman = 1
joker = 1
faction mafia = 6 (assuming we didn't successfully lynch a mafia)
mafia doctor = 1
patrolmen = 3
boondock = 1
pardoner = 1
doctor = 1 (one down, but just for predictions sake)
director = 3 (one down, for predictions sake)

and the results:
Probability of at least 1 Faction Mafia dying is: 38.4615 <-- crucial one in my opinion
Probability of at least 1 Mafia Doctor dying is: 7.12251
Probability of at least 1 Patrolmen dying is: 20.5128
Probability of at least 1 Boondock dying is: 7.12251
Probability of at least 1 Pardoner dying is: 7.12251
Probability of at least 1 Doctor dying is: 7.12251
Probability of at least 1 Director dying is: 20.5128
Probability of at least 1 Regular Townie dying is: 66.6667
Probability of at least 1 Faction Townie dying is: 90.8832
Probability of at least 1 Special Townie dying is: 58.4046
Probability of any given individual being mafia: 20.6897 <-- crucial for comparison

change of parameters to reflect successfully lynching a mafia yields:
Probability of at least 1 Faction Mafia dying is: 32.7635 <--crucial
Probability of at least 1 Mafia Doctor dying is: 7.12251
Probability of at least 1 Patrolmen dying is: 20.5128
Probability of at least 1 Boondock dying is: 7.12251
Probability of at least 1 Pardoner dying is: 7.12251
Probability of at least 1 Doctor dying is: 7.12251
Probability of at least 1 Director dying is: 20.5128
Probability of at least 1 Regular Townie dying is: 70.3704
Probability of at least 1 Faction Townie dying is: 91.7379
Probability of at least 1 Special Townie dying is: 58.4046
Probability of any given individual being mafia: 17.2414 <--- comparison crucial

Run it yourselves and play around with the parameters.

Post has been edited 2 time(s), last time on Oct 13 2009, 12:18 am by Vrael.



None.

Oct 13 2009, 12:21 am Bar Refaeli Post #310



seeing as i have no clue what he just said, im just gonna follow vrael into oblivion.

so do we lynch you or not?


(theres always the chance that you are mafia, and that the mafia will try and save you, or theres the chance that you arent mafia, but the mafia will kill you anyways from the data you have shown.)



None.

Oct 13 2009, 12:25 am Greo Post #311



Quote from name:Raccoon
seeing as i have no clue what he just said, im just gonna follow vrael into oblivion.

so do we lynch you or not?


(theres always the chance that you are mafia, and that the mafia will try and save you, or theres the chance that you arent mafia, but the mafia will kill you anyways from the data you have shown.)

I'm pretty sure, at this point, he'll be killed by Mafia or the Joker or by us. Most likely, you're Mafia.
Just remember.





None.

Oct 13 2009, 12:28 am Corbo Post #312

ALL PRAISE YOUR SUPREME LORD CORBO

Well vrael. You did say you are nothing do we lynch you or do we risk losing more important roles than a townie?



fuck you all

Oct 13 2009, 12:46 am poison_us Post #313

Back* from the grave

Quote from name:Shocko
Darksnow, read the first fucking post or god help me I'll kill you myself.
Quote from name:Shocko
I vote Darksnow.
This is my official vote everyday until he dies unless otherwise indicated.
Seconded. This is beyond retarded. Either obtain better knowledge of the game, or don't play. I suck ass at mafia, but at least I know the rules and roles.




Oct 13 2009, 12:55 am Bar Refaeli Post #314



and if i wasnt extremely suspicious of darksnow right now, i would be protecting him by you guys idiots cause it is his first game and you guys arent necesarily being "nice" to him (but i find that being "nice" isnt important anymore), and he is probably trying hard even though it doesnt look like it.



None.

Oct 13 2009, 12:57 am Vrael Post #315



Quote from Corbo
Well vrael. You did say you are nothing do we lynch you or do we risk losing more important roles than a townie?
I think at this point in the game it would be better to risk me living to get a mafia possibly with the joker hits. Later in the game, the mafia/townie ratio will definitely be larger and joker hits will have a better chance of hitting, but at that point the townie lives are going to be more valuable as well. The one role I'd be majorly concerned about is a doctor dying, but batman has 3 night lives and a secret identity, so I think its worth the risk.

However, wait until the day post to pass judgement. Fool around with my program if you're bored and want to do some prediction.

Of course, I expect that you'd expect me to say this, but it's true nevertheless.



None.

Oct 13 2009, 1:38 am poison_us Post #316

Back* from the grave

Raccoon, the reason rules are present is for them to be followed, and [I think] knowing the roles should be one. It's not hard to remember who's able to do what.

Quote from Vrael
batman has 3 night lives and a secret identity.
It's Clark Kent!





Oct 13 2009, 3:23 am Chubacca Post #317



Although Darksnow is clueless of how this game works, and is proving to be more of a hassle then a help, give him a break, it is his first mafia game, and is still understanding how this game works.

Vrael, nice probability program lol, I never payed much attention to your posts till now, is that probability calculator for when the joker gets the 2 random hits? If so, we have like 1/3 chance that a mafia dies and like 7% chance that 2 mafia die. I forgot how to do probability. Are you going to add like second step to the probability program? Like the "who got killed" part?

@Darksnow: Please read the first post, even though everyone has said it at least once before lol. You would be a big help if you would be able to solve the clues inside the night/day posts DTBK posts every week. See if you can find anything in the day post DTBK posted a couple days ago, use as much critical thinking you can.

EDIT: im also just posting so i don't have to look for the last page i viewed.



None.

Oct 13 2009, 4:19 am Vrael Post #318



It gives the probability that at least 1 member of a certain group will be killed during the 2 random Joker hits.

Quote
Like the "who got killed" part?
Not necessary. Just run the program a 2nd time with the new parameters.



None.

Oct 13 2009, 6:35 am InsolubleFluff Post #319



He said he watched the last 2 games, so I'd expect him to understand how it works.

Vrael, you put a bit too much effort into town. We both know they won't equal it. Hell, I think some of them are yet to make a post.



None.

Oct 13 2009, 6:42 am Vrael Post #320



Quote from name:Shocko
He said he watched the last 2 games, so I'd expect him to understand how it works.

Vrael, you put a bit too much effort into town. We both know they won't equal it. Hell, I think some of them are yet to make a post.
Yeah but I'm scared I'll die tonight. Had to do it all now before I die, otherwise it'd be cheating. Dead people don't write programs.



None.

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