Actually... I am strongly thinking against Vrael.
He said that a mafia wouldn't bother making the analysis, wrong. A mafia would. Trying to defend himself from getting lynched.
And I also find suspicious that in his super deep analysis he doesn't mention the fact that by ignoring the joker the 2 hits can also be on a townie role like a patrolman or BDS for that matter and seeing how many roles there are there's a 42% chance of hitting a special role. That's actually a bit higher than hitting a mafia.
Either way I want this night to end before making premature accusations.
Yes naturally. I'm working on a more in-depth analysis now. It'll be a program so that even when I die, anyone can use it.
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ALL PRAISE YOUR SUPREME LORD CORBO
well to me, raccoon is more suspicious than vrael.
the detective should investigate vrael, and batman should investigate raccoon
batman shouldn't use his powers too early on imo.
fuck you all
hmm, good point. he only gets 3 uses
wait.. i just realized, we dont have detectives...
batman is the only one who can reveal roles...
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Darksnow, read the first fucking post or god help me I'll kill you myself. Batman should be careful with his ability.
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hahaha, oh god darksnow, it is okay.
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i have the sickening feeling that we're gonna get owned by the mafia this time around.
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Na, I think we will do pretty good. :-)
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I vote Darksnow.
This is my official vote everyday until he dies unless otherwise indicated.
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shocko's just being mean to me now =O
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Your pressence on this site is trolling me. So is '=o' it is stupid and not neccessary in all your posts.
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Your pressence on this site is trolling me. So is '=o' it is stupid and not neccessary in all your posts.
Don't be a dick. Just ignore him.
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Damn, I'm out... gg for me
I was out for 3 days for some camping with friends and when I come back: I'm kicked of the game >.<
Anyways, humans can make errors, I pardon you, DT_BK
If I was a townie, I'd have talked about 4 points, but meh, it seems like you'll have to do without me being accused by Shocko
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Without Night Hits Included; total population = 35, no deaths yetProbability of at least 1 Faction Mafia dying is: 0.323864
Probability of at least 1 Mafia Doctor dying is: 0.0587121
Probability of at least 1 Patrolmen dying is: 0.170455
Probability of at least 1 Boondock dying is: 0.0587121
Probability of at least 1 Pardoner dying is: 0.0587121
Probability of at least 1 Doctor dying is: 0.11553
Probability of at least 1 Director dying is: 0.223485
Probability of at least 1 Regular Townie dying is: 0.712121
Probability of at least 1 Faction Townie dying is: 0.92803
Probability of at least 1 Special Townie dying is: 0.579545
Probability of any given individual being mafia: 0.171429
Can you guys think of any other probabilities that I should include in the program?
Post has been edited 3 time(s), last time on Oct 12 2009, 10:05 pm by Vrael.
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Can you guys think of any other probabilities that I should include in the program?
Getting 'saved' by the Patrolmen or Mafia Doctor, or getting a power redirected.
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I can't calculate that probability. That's a player's choice to use. I can only calculate the probability that a random joker hit will land on a specific target or a specific group.
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its said that a jokers power cannot be directed, so you can negate that.
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ALL PRAISE YOUR SUPREME LORD CORBO
wtf darksnow? you seriously have to pay closer attention to the game
fuck you all
i didnt understand vrael's probablities at all, but i say we let vrael live unless someone with a nite hit can kill him, cause losing our lynch is horrible, and the random hits dont sound that bad.
and why the hell do people think im mafia?
i dont think you should lynch me or anyone else just based on what they have jokingly said.
but now im suspicious about echo and darksnow being so close together and trying to get me lynched w/o any clues. (not saying i would like either of you two lynched though, so dont post something like "you are hypocrite!"
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Corbo
