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SEN Mafia XV: Gotham City
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Oct 3 2009, 8:43 pm
By: DT_Battlekruser
Pages: < 1 « 13 14 15 16 1782 >
 

Oct 12 2009, 8:22 pm Vrael Post #281



Quote from Corbo
Actually... I am strongly thinking against Vrael.

He said that a mafia wouldn't bother making the analysis, wrong. A mafia would. Trying to defend himself from getting lynched.
And I also find suspicious that in his super deep analysis he doesn't mention the fact that by ignoring the joker the 2 hits can also be on a townie role like a patrolman or BDS for that matter and seeing how many roles there are there's a 42% chance of hitting a special role. That's actually a bit higher than hitting a mafia.

Either way I want this night to end before making premature accusations.
Yes naturally. I'm working on a more in-depth analysis now. It'll be a program so that even when I die, anyone can use it.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 8:22 pm Corbo Post #282

ALL PRAISE YOUR SUPREME LORD CORBO

Quote from darksnow
well to me, raccoon is more suspicious than vrael.
the detective should investigate vrael, and batman should investigate raccoon
batman shouldn't use his powers too early on imo.



fuck you all

Oct 12 2009, 8:27 pm darksnow Post #283



hmm, good point. he only gets 3 uses
wait.. i just realized, we dont have detectives...
batman is the only one who can reveal roles...



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Oct 12 2009, 8:30 pm InsolubleFluff Post #284



Darksnow, read the first fucking post or god help me I'll kill you myself. Batman should be careful with his ability.



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Oct 12 2009, 8:35 pm Chubacca Post #285



:lol: hahaha, oh god darksnow, it is okay.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 8:41 pm darksnow Post #286



i have the sickening feeling that we're gonna get owned by the mafia this time around.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 8:51 pm Chubacca Post #287



Na, I think we will do pretty good. :-)



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Oct 12 2009, 8:54 pm InsolubleFluff Post #288



I vote Darksnow.
This is my official vote everyday until he dies unless otherwise indicated.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 9:21 pm darksnow Post #289



shocko's just being mean to me now =O



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Oct 12 2009, 9:28 pm InsolubleFluff Post #290



Your pressence on this site is trolling me. So is '=o' it is stupid and not neccessary in all your posts.



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Oct 12 2009, 9:32 pm Greo Post #291



Quote from name:Shocko
Your pressence on this site is trolling me. So is '=o' it is stupid and not neccessary in all your posts.
Don't be a dick. Just ignore him.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 9:39 pm payne Post #292

:payne:

Damn, I'm out... gg for me :(
I was out for 3 days for some camping with friends and when I come back: I'm kicked of the game >.<
Anyways, humans can make errors, I pardon you, DT_BK ^^

If I was a townie, I'd have talked about 4 points, but meh, it seems like you'll have to do without me being accused by Shocko :P



None.

Oct 12 2009, 9:57 pm Vrael Post #293



Without Night Hits Included; total population = 35, no deaths yet
Probability of at least 1 Faction Mafia dying is: 0.323864
Probability of at least 1 Mafia Doctor dying is: 0.0587121
Probability of at least 1 Patrolmen dying is: 0.170455
Probability of at least 1 Boondock dying is: 0.0587121
Probability of at least 1 Pardoner dying is: 0.0587121
Probability of at least 1 Doctor dying is: 0.11553
Probability of at least 1 Director dying is: 0.223485
Probability of at least 1 Regular Townie dying is: 0.712121
Probability of at least 1 Faction Townie dying is: 0.92803
Probability of at least 1 Special Townie dying is: 0.579545
Probability of any given individual being mafia: 0.171429


Can you guys think of any other probabilities that I should include in the program?

Post has been edited 3 time(s), last time on Oct 12 2009, 10:05 pm by Vrael.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 10:02 pm DT_Battlekruser Post #294



payne, I check the logs - you posed in the topic but you never actually signed up for Mafia XV (i.e. said "I'm in" or something equivalent). That would explain why I missed you.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 10:04 pm Greo Post #295



Quote from Vrael
Can you guys think of any other probabilities that I should include in the program?
Getting 'saved' by the Patrolmen or Mafia Doctor, or getting a power redirected.



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Oct 12 2009, 10:06 pm Vrael Post #296



I can't calculate that probability. That's a player's choice to use. I can only calculate the probability that a random joker hit will land on a specific target or a specific group.



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Oct 12 2009, 10:17 pm darksnow Post #297



its said that a jokers power cannot be directed, so you can negate that.



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Oct 12 2009, 10:19 pm Corbo Post #298

ALL PRAISE YOUR SUPREME LORD CORBO

wtf darksnow? you seriously have to pay closer attention to the game :hurr:



fuck you all

Oct 12 2009, 10:24 pm InsolubleFluff Post #299



He's doing my head in.



None.

Oct 12 2009, 10:31 pm Bar Refaeli Post #300



i didnt understand vrael's probablities at all, but i say we let vrael live unless someone with a nite hit can kill him, cause losing our lynch is horrible, and the random hits dont sound that bad.

and why the hell do people think im mafia?
i dont think you should lynch me or anyone else just based on what they have jokingly said.
but now im suspicious about echo and darksnow being so close together and trying to get me lynched w/o any clues. (not saying i would like either of you two lynched though, so dont post something like "you are hypocrite!"



None.

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