So, we all know about Nostradamus, but there is this new guy, muuuuch more recent. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. In 1980, he claims to have created a computer algorithm, that can essentially predict the future. The CIA put him up to the test, there were 17 events the CIA asked him to predict (based on major events), they also had their analysts working on the same exact events. His algorithm is reported to have a 90% accuracy rating, while the CIA analysts had about a 50% accuracy rating.. He now has a president, a flock of Fortune 500 compaines, the CIA, and the Department of defense. All of these are backing him up, and are asking him to predict the future. He has recently made 2,000 correct predictions relating from anything of terrorism to American, and a little bit of Northern Ireland peace process.


This shows how much more accurate this guy is. Also, this guy isn't just a nobody, he is the chairman of New York University’s Department of Politics. He occasionally consults with the CIA and defense department.

So, what would you say now? Is it just reallly good guess work, or can math map out the future now ?

Post has been edited 1 time(s), last time on Dec 1 2008, 3:39 am by Epoch.

Err.. link to the guy.

Could we have some uh, details?

Lol, its on the history channel right now. Sorry >.< I'll look for some.

Here is your guy.

This is not SD. At all. I'm moving it to null for now. If you want to edit your first post... extensively... then maybe it can go back to SD.

Thanks. Ill get right on that dapper.

Well at first I thought "Wow, bullshit, no one can foretell the future".

Then I read the article and can understand now what he does it and it makes perfect sense. His work is also part psychologic profiling. Simplified you could say the program can determine what would be the best course of action, but also factors in the behavior of the persons involved.

So it IS possible to tell that Al-Queda is not going to attack a United States that has very tight security measures at the moment. But it is NOT possible to predict if I will eat chicken or noodles tomorrow.

So, no, math can not map the future now, and probably never can.
But yes, what he does is 'just' really good guess work (or rather rational assumptions).

This. Cue the uncertainty principle.

You still didn't really give us your opinion on the topic. Which is kind of important for SD. Although I assume you think he's pretty legit since you posted the topic in the first place?

If someone could truly predict the future. They would know that showing his/her "powers" to the public is a bad idea. A bad idea because he/she would spend his/her life imprisoned to tell the future so that the society feels safe. Then you would argue that if I had those powers, wouldn't I want everyone to be safe? The answer is yes, but I would do it in a manner that would get me imprisoned. (Impossible)

He doesn't have "powers". He's using logic to show nearly all the outcomes and find the most likely one.

Sort of an advanced version of saying "When I drop this apple, it will fall to the ground."

Impossible!

If there's an elephant in the way, that is

NO WAY!

But it is major events mainly. He predicited tons of the terrorist activities in Iraq. He also has predicted very bad things in our future. Such as there will be a nuclear war between Israel and Pakistan (I believe, I will have to watch the show again For all of your sakes)

My point being, this could be majorly helpful. He already has contacts with Homeland Security.

Did I mention that after 9/11 he predicted no more terroristic activity afterwards in the U.S? Look what happened >.>''

A nuclear war between Israel and Pakistan is a perfectly logical thing to predict; they are both already nuclear powers, Israel is a bit of a loose cannon in the Middle East, and as we just saw in India, Pakistan is home to terrorist groups it either purposely does nothing to stop or is powerless to stop.

Have you ever studied probability and statistics? If you do not set a time limit and have a very general statement, then the probability is very high that the event will take place. Here is one of my favorite examples:

http://pass.maths.org.uk/issue4/grimmett/


But wait, as any good salesperson will tell you, there's more!

http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/477530/probability-theory/32766/The-birthday-problem

Here we see some of the actual laws taking place and we find that we can predict future events with near absolute certainty given the right parameters.

Anyone can do it. It doesn't take a genuis nor Nostradamus to make predictions. The fact the CIA has a 50% rating of getting predictions right is probably due to the fact that they have made MORE predictions, and there being only 2 end outcome (right or wrong). True randomness tends to skew towards one outcome than the other (look at an example of flipping a coin) but in the end, the outcomes pretty much equal each other. This appears to me as an example of random events occuring that people misinterpret.

TADAH! ANYONE CAN PREDICT EVENTS IF THEY THINK IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY!

Post has been edited 1 time(s), last time on Dec 2 2008, 4:00 am by A_of-s_t.

Is he predicting things so that he (and others) can go, "O, look, I said it would happen!" or is he doing it so that we can act to prevent such things (as nuclear war)?

Having a common goal will bring powers together in order to conquer the problem. If Pakistan and Israel do get involved in a nuclear war, Russia and the U.S. will set their differences aside to stop such an apocalyptic event. Impossible