The more I got involved in the math, I think I will actually run for mayor this game. I'm not going to make a campaign-war out of this, just vote for me if you trust me.

I'm going to base my candidacy on the fact that I believe the number clue to be the sum of the mafia member ID's. I think this is extremely obvious, and therefore I will base my game strategy off this.

I am not, I'm afraid, the Detective. If I am elected, I beg the detective to contact me and work with me, because knowing the roles of people is vital to narrowing down the math.

The following are probability distributions for mafia, excluding running the three people with MID over the total and me, since I know that I am not mafia. Note that these numbers purely reflect the statistical likelihood of any member being mafia with the given number of mafia, and not any suspicions I may have, per se.

Apologize in advance for the long post, but any boxes didn't support the font tag


WITH 3 TOTAL MAFIA

mafia: 562,186,35
mafia: 562,84,137
mafia: 562,82,139
mafia: 265,40,478
---
MAFIA SUSPECTS
MID FREQUENCY
Hynk 3
Doktor Shotgun 1
Killer_Kow 1
JordanN 1
l)ark_ssj9kevin 1
Paravin 1
Vi3t-X 1
Jello-Jigglers 1
WoAHorde 1
Doodan 1
---
CLEAN:
ihjel
NerdyTerdy
FatalException
Dark_Marine_123
Loveless
A_of-s_t
JaFF
Crimson Magnum
Heegu
cheeze
EzDay281
Zycorax
Dapperdan
Doodle77
isolatedpurity
Greo

WITH 4 TOTAL MAFIA

mafia: 562,186,7,28
mafia: 562,50,143,28
mafia: 562,143,35,43
mafia: 562,7,75,139
mafia: 186,409,143,45
mafia: 186,84,35,478
mafia: 186,143,7,447
mafia: 409,330,43,1
mafia: 409,327,7,40
mafia: 409,256,75,43
mafia: 405,84,265,29
mafia: 405,327,50,1
mafia: 405,40,256,82
mafia: 330,327,125,1
mafia: 330,143,265,45
mafia: 84,478,82,139
mafia: 327,125,256,75
mafia: 35,45,256,447
mafia: 265,28,43,447
mafia: 265,125,256,137
mafia: 29,137,478,139
mafia: 125,137,478,43
---
MAFIA SUSPECTS
MID FREQUENCY
A_of-s_t 5
Doodle77 5
Zycorax 5
Hynk 4
Doktor Shotgun 4
JaFF 4
ihjel 4
Doodan 4
Dark_Marine_123 4
Jello-Jigglers 4
EzDay281 4
Crimson Magnum 3
Killer_Kow 3
Dapperdan 3
Vi3t-X 3
cheeze 3
JordanN 3
Greo 3
FatalException 3
isolatedpurity 3
NerdyTerdy 3
l)ark_ssj9kevin 3
Loveless 2
WoAHorde 2
Heegu 2
Paravin 2

WITH 5 MAFIA
mafia: 562,50,45,125,1
mafia: 562,143,7,28,43
mafia: 562,35,7,40,139
mafia: 562,35,29,75,82
mafia: 562,40,137,43,1
mafia: 186,409,84,29,75
mafia: 186,409,50,137,1
mafia: 186,409,35,28,125
mafia: 186,405,35,75,82
mafia: 186,330,84,143,40
mafia: 186,84,327,143,43
mafia: 186,84,7,28,478
mafia: 186,327,143,45,82
mafia: 186,50,143,265,139
mafia: 186,50,29,40,478
mafia: 186,35,40,75,447
mafia: 186,265,256,75,1
mafia: 186,28,40,82,447
mafia: 186,478,75,43,1
mafia: 409,84,28,125,137
mafia: 409,50,28,40,256
mafia: 409,35,265,29,45
mafia: 409,35,125,75,139
mafia: 409,35,40,256,43
mafia: 409,35,256,82,1
mafia: 409,7,29,256,82
mafia: 409,28,125,82,139
mafia: 405,330,7,40,1
mafia: 405,84,265,28,1
mafia: 405,84,137,75,82
mafia: 405,327,7,43,1
mafia: 405,50,35,265,28
mafia: 405,50,29,256,43
mafia: 405,143,35,125,75
mafia: 405,143,28,125,82
mafia: 405,265,28,45,40
mafia: 405,7,40,256,75
mafia: 330,84,327,35,7
mafia: 330,84,265,29,75
mafia: 330,327,50,75,1
mafia: 330,327,43,82,1
mafia: 330,50,265,137,1
mafia: 330,35,265,28,125
mafia: 330,29,125,256,43
mafia: 330,40,256,75,82
mafia: 84,50,143,28,478
mafia: 84,143,35,265,256
mafia: 84,143,35,478,43
mafia: 84,7,478,75,139
mafia: 84,45,125,82,447
mafia: 84,40,137,75,447
mafia: 327,50,143,7,256
mafia: 327,143,28,29,256
mafia: 327,35,28,256,137
mafia: 327,35,125,40,256
mafia: 327,265,7,45,139
mafia: 327,256,75,43,82
mafia: 50,265,256,137,75
mafia: 50,29,256,1,447
mafia: 50,137,478,75,43
mafia: 143,35,45,478,82
mafia: 143,28,125,40,447
mafia: 35,265,7,29,447
mafia: 265,256,137,43,82
mafia: 7,28,45,256,447
mafia: 28,137,478,1,139
mafia: 29,45,125,137,447
mafia: 29,125,43,139,447
mafia: 125,40,478,1,139
mafia: 40,75,82,139,447
---
MAFIA SUSPECTS
MID FREQUENCY
Killer_Kow 19
Dapperdan 19
Zycorax 19
Crimson Magnum 18
WoAHorde 17
Paravin 16
EzDay281 15
isolatedpurity 15
JordanN 15
Loveless 14
A_of-s_t 14
Doodle77 14
Doktor Shotgun 14
Jello-Jigglers 14
JaFF 13
Heegu 13
l)ark_ssj9kevin 12
Dark_Marine_123 12
ihjel 11
NerdyTerdy 11
Greo 11
Vi3t-X 10
FatalException 10
Doodan 10
cheeze 9
Hynk 5
---
CLEAN:

WITH 6 MAFIA:

<mafia list omitted for sanity>
---
MAFIA SUSPECTS
MID FREQUENCY
Crimson Magnum 60
isolatedpurity 58
Dapperdan 58
cheeze 57
Doodle77 55
Paravin 55
Killer_Kow 54
JordanN 53
Loveless 52
Heegu 52
WoAHorde 52
JaFF 50
Vi3t-X 49
Doktor Shotgun 46
l)ark_ssj9kevin 46
A_of-s_t 46
EzDay281 43
Zycorax 38
Jello-Jigglers 36
ihjel 32
FatalException 29
Dark_Marine_123 28
NerdyTerdy 22
Doodan 22
Greo 21
Hynk 8
---
CLEAN:



With seven mafia, there are OVER NINE BILLION permutations to iterate, so not worth checking now.

This isn't much to go off of to start, but hopefully deaths + detective revealing them will rapidly shorten the list of potential mafia. Detective MUST investigate people in order of increasing Member ID, since it eliminates popular list components

Both you and NudeRaider are basing your entire game strategy off of ONE CLUE. In the VERY BEGINNING of the game. Honestly, come on. This could possibly be a red herring, although unlikely. It could easily mean something else though. You can't just jump on one idea and expect it to be fool proof. I admit that it is a reasonable route to explore, but it should by no means be the entire base for your candidacy. Come on.

I have the trust of quite a few of the players who are considered good, and DTBK has just shown that I appear in a very low position on all of those lists for suspicion. If nothing else elect me because I'm more than willing to take advice from others and I'm not very likely to be mafia based on the evidence we have at hand.

Well done DTBK, but it's hardly helpful. ;/ Also, the fact you didn't include yourself is ridiculous unless you aren't townie.

First, yes it isn't very helpful. It will be later however.

Second, I removed myself from the list because I know I'm not mafia, and I wanted to remove any combinations of other people that would only work if the mafia list included me. If you don't trust me, run the analysis with me in it. If you're wondering, yes I am high up on the list because my member ID divides into a lot of stuff (like IP's).

Quote

If nothing else elect me because I'm more than willing to take advice from others

And you're most willing to spill the beans to anyone who asks nicely.

Quote

It could easily mean something else though.

Such as? It is pretty obviously foolproof. However, as Dan said, it doesn't tell us much right now.

Then include your combinations in a cut-off section; I'm not going to do it.

Also, as I said, what if subtraction was included to achieve 863?

In addition: we are going to need to have a PM discussion soon DTBK. Just give me a bit more time.

Post has been edited 1 time(s), last time on Feb 26 2008, 5:37 am by Dapperdan.

Though, why would he include himself if he knew he was a townie?
I'm a bit suspicious of DTBK though.

The math probabilities get interesting if you seriously suspect someone... you can link another person to the mafia with like a 90% likelihood.

Due to his ability to easily gather more votes and having parallel views to mine, I vote and endorse Senator Nerdyterdy. Let's win this game townspeople!

I just talked to Dan about it, he got a lot less info from me than you seem to believe. Anyway, if you don't trust me, talk to someone else about it who can advise me, but don't actually tell me the person who has the role.

Edit: I suppose that sentence needs a bit of clarification. Say you know about a saint, DTBK. Then you could either talk to me or Dan about it, but you wouldn't need to tell us who the saint was. We could give our opinions on a good hit, you could decide from there. No one has to know your friend's roles except you.

I want to assure you that there won't be any information leaks from me, but that will be a good system for ye of little faith.

Post has been edited 1 time(s), last time on Feb 26 2008, 5:41 am by NerdyTerdy.

TO EVERYONE: NO ONE GIVE OUT THE CONTENTS OF WHAT A TOWNIE ROLE PM SAYS. NOT TO ANYONE YET. IT WILL BE USED FOR ALLIANCE CREATION UPCOMING -- A SYSTEM IS IN PREPERATION TO DO IT EFFICIENTLY.

I already did ><

You're not a (normal) townie IP. So... umm... yeah.

How do YOU know?

Edit: I'm greatly confused atm.

It's because I'm genius, IP. Duh.

I'm actually mafia ><
Something very fish is going onnnnnnnn....

You were even easier to jedi mind trick than Echo. LOL

Nerdy told me what you meant, so I understand now.
Though I dunno why anyone would trust you to set up a townie network.

<---- We've got kind faces

She's not playing.

Although she's welcome to play with me any time.

But maybe you ARE! And just trying to hide the truth!

He's right. In future updates you should include yourself, so we can see if the math turns against you.
And don't try fooling us, I still got my program.
But anyways nice to have someone to cross check the results with, DTBK. The probabilities are about what my program says. Unfortunately no one is especially suspicious or probably innocent. Hope that changes.

Oh man, just stop it Nerdy. The clue IS obvious. Didn't you read my first interpretation post? The clue just fits PERFECTLY. The only thing I'd accept that Moose PLANTED this clue to be so perfect just to confuse us completely. But usually Moose has some good clues in the first post for us. So this interpretation IS BY FAR THE BEST WE GOT.
The other thing you told me, that post #783 is Jello Jigglers' is completely invalid, as he's not even playing. Also how would you include the 863 to it?
I'm not basing my entire strategy on it, but I intend to keep it in mind and check again if we have more info. At least i HAVE a strategy and I am not just posting a bunch of bs to confuse townies.
What's your strategy btw.?

Last Mafia you trusted your friend Dapper, who unfortunately was Mafia and then raped us townies. Remember that I told you MORE THAN ONCE that Dapper may be Mafia, still you went on feeding him information. Sorry I cannot trust your judgement anymore. If you present proofs or at least pseudo-proofs of the players you trust then I might be more willing to accept you as "useful" insted of "harmful".