I actually don't think the Terrans are OP just yet. It's all theorycraft, but I'd give a slight advantage to the Zerg. The Terran won that game because the Zerg kept going for the all-in kill even after seeing the bunkers the Terran put up (bunkers can't move out and attack). He kept sacrificing units instead of maintaining the contain and expanding properly. His 2nd expansion was really really late considering that he had map control for so long, but he had teched fast enough to achieve Infestors against Banshees.
I currently theorycraft the typical TvZ game flow as follows. Aside from Terran proxy cheese against Zerg Fast Expand, Zerg will control the early game. Zerglings > Marines and Zealots early on with the superior surround pathing. Scouting will be difficult for both sides; Marines can take out stray Zergling scouts and Zerglings easily surround SCV scouts with their speed boost on creep. Overlords give Zerg a slight scouting advantage here. Fast Terran lifted expands with 5 scvs won't be a problem if the Zerg can scout the base with a Zergling. Even if he can't, the Blizzard maps seem small enough that they can order an early Overlord to potential lifted expansion spots. See a Terran fast expand with that Overlord? You can counter by attacking, fast teching, or double expanding yourself. Hell, depending on how long it takes to tech it, Overlord scouts can delay the expansion by spewing creep.
At this point, a small micro contain war starts and the macro goes into overdrive. What happens highly depends on the builds each player uses, but eventually I think it'll coalesce into the Zerg containing with Zerglings and Banelings while expanding/teching.
Looking at the armies:
1) Marauder + Marine seems powerful, but the sheer threat of burrowed Banelings with Zergling support allow a Zerg to contain the Terran with ease. Think of it like TvP in Starcraft 1; when mines are out, the Protoss ground army doesn't move until an Observer is completed; they most they can do before Observers is a Reaver drop. I see TvZ being the same way, except Banelings cost more but are also more effective (can unburrow when on top of enemy, does not kill friendly units with splash). Each Comstat could have been Mules mining that many more minerals, so it's unlikely those will be used to detect burrowed Banelings. Marauders also need tech labs, so they can't abuse the Reactor's double production speed.
2) Reapers just seem...weak so far.
3) Siege Tanks come out too late and apear to be for late game use.
4) I am unsure how the Hellion will fit into this (how does their splash fare against Banelings? can they outrun them and harass better than Reapers? can Roaches stop them? is Mutalisk micro enough of a threat that the Terran will skip Hellions?).
The Zerg will then probably go for +1 expansion on the Terran and then settle into macro/tech mode abusing the Queen's Spawn Larva ability for an insane number of Drones. It just usually isn't worth attacking a Terran all-in, especially with how most maps shown so far have tiny chokes, unless the Terran shows a major weakness by risking fast tech/expansion. A Fast Expand Zerg economy will then be far ahead with tech slightly behind. The exception is perhaps a Terran mass Marine timing push with Reactor addons, hitting a Fast Expand Zerg before they finish their Roach/Baneling tech. Depending on building speed/hp of units/energy costs, it may also be possible to supplement this timing attack with dropped Mules from an Orbital Command. Given the risk, it's unlikely that these pushes will occur (if it fails it's over). It's more likely that the Zergling Baneling contain will take place.
Once Terran tech finishes though, there will be a timing window for the Terran to push out while also grabbing their second expansion (upgraded into a fortress). They have a few options, all dealing with air units (I blame the lack of Scourge for the air unit frenzy).
1) Medivac drops, maybe with nukes due to their speed and the mindgames with the new warning (says BASE UNDER ATTACK instead of NUCLEAR LAUNCH DETECTED now)
2) Banshee or Viking raids. Banshees have cloak and splash and are good at hit and runs. Vikings are also a good option depending on how they fare against Hydralisks/Mutalisks as the Queen's Razor Plague does less damage to them and they can escape Zergling/Baneling/Roach/Corruptor support easily. Vikings could also accompany a Medivac drop. I also see dropped mules repairing a Viking based army being an option.
3) Nighthawk supporting the ground army. This is the more powerful option, but will take longer to set up. A terran may preceed their Nighthawk + ground army attack with Medivacs or Banshees, perhaps just to draw attention to one base while attacking another.
It's the Zerg's job at this stage to survive the assault. They have the economical advantage and the travel distance should make up for the tech disadvantage. It's a matter of surviving. Zerg Lair tech definitely seems weaker, so it's a Terran advantage. The Zerg defense can probably be divided into:
1) Queens hit ground and air, so they help against Banshee raids. They also have Razor Plague (Lair tech research), which appears to be a weaker Psi Storm that only targets enemies. This helps against the ground army, dropped or not, as it does extra against biological. So long as it can avoid being sniped by Ghosts with Psi round to death. If the Ghost gets the EMP ability I've been hearing about, the Queen may not be useful at all depending on how much energy Razor Plague costs. I foresee Medivac Ghost drops designed just to hunt Queens.
2) Overseers (Lair tech) heal units and buildings. When trying to survive, this is definitely a good thing. That Queen better not die.
3) Unburrowing Banelings/Zerglings/Hydralisks/Roaches should help make Medivac drops riskier. The Hydralisk can also help against Banshee raids.
4) Corrupters (Lair tech) or Mutalisks (Lair tech + Spire). Corrupters come out earlier, but they may not kill fast enough to be worth it against Medivacs, Banshees, and Nighthawks. Mutalisks are also a possibility, depending on how effective Mutalisk micro is in this game. I don't see this being a popular option given that Nighthawks can splash with their Hunter Seeker missiles (stacked air? please).
5) Spine and Spore crawlers, basic defensive structures. If the buildings are strong enough, I see this being used to force a Terran to tech to Sieges, buying time for Hive tech to complete.
Things look pretty grim for the Zerg. Lair tech is weak in that two of the units come right when Lair is done (Corrupter and Overseer), one is a Lair upgrade, and the final is a Spire. I see Zergs rushing for Hive as soon as possible instead of hoping for a 2nd or 3rd expansion, maybe delaying the Hive for Razor Plague if it proves powerful enough a spell.
BUT, if the Zerg CAN survive without taking an absurd amount of damage, the game is over. Come Hive tech, holy crap.
1) Infestor has limited mind control with Neural Parasite. Please launch Hunter Seeker missiles at the Terran army. They also have Fungal Parasite, which deals damage to a single unit over a period of time, exploding once that unit dies. Finally, there's Infested Terran summons, which I see as anti air support for a primarily ground vs ground army. Unfortunately, Ghosts can snipe the crap out of them with Psi round. Keep them loaded up in Overlords as much as possible to prevent said sniping.
2) Ultralisks. Not sure on this one, it really depends on how it fares against the new Terran units (Nighthawks and Marauders especially), though the economical advantage might push it in favor of the Zerg.
3) Swarm Guardians, the new Guardians that now spawn Broodlings with each attack. Nighthawks, Nikings, and the Thor (supposedly being experimented on as an anti air unit) might make this a bit weaker, though the economical advantage might push it in favor of the Zerg.
4) Lurkers. I see this option being the favored one. Large amounts of splash damage force a Terran to rely on more expensive tech (air and sieges) instead of their basic ground. This gives the Zerg army time to deal some major damage with the following...
5) Nydus Worm/Canal. The Zerg's autowin button and the reason why I think this match is Zerg favored. The specifics of it has apparently changed over and over (requires Overlord/Overseer? requires creep being spewed? how long does it take to come out? etc.), but it can easily allow floods of Zerg units to penetrate deep into enemy bases. Assuming the Zerg survives the Terran push, I foresee a Terran then spreading himself too thin in fear of the Worm and getting outmassed this way or just getting Nydused to hell. If I understand its mechanics correctly, Terran counterattacks won't do much as the Zerg can simply run back through the canal after demolishing a base.
Anywho, that's all theorycraft. Everything is subject to change. As I see it now, Terran are not OP. Hell, I'd say the Protoss is absolutely ridiculous with the Dark Pylon shenanigans. For 50 more minerals than a normal Pylon, it can transfer energy to spellcasters, cloak units, and cause Probes to mine faster. Holy crap, Queens and Mules have nothing on that. That alone should give Protoss an absurd boost above the other races.
Post has been edited 6 time(s), last time on Apr 19 2009, 9:08 pm by SelfPossessed.
None.