- China pulled off the 2008 Olympics impressively and with a 40$ billion budget. It demonstrated to the world that it's modern. (Not that I like it).
- The Middle East problems have been continuing and escalating. Iran is closer than ever to nuclear weapons, and though Iraq is pretty decent now, Afghanistan is getting worse. Taliban are fighting back.
- North Korea has revived its nuclear program after not being taken off the US 'Axis of Evil 2.0' list after it stopped its activities. It's leader is said to have been sick the past few months, but he's supposed to have been seen recently. If something's still wrong, NK just became pretty unpredictable.
- Georgia invaded South Ossetia and Russia invaded Georgia (and Palin wants to invade Russia). The US has been helpless and its failure to act has decreased its standing.
- Financial crisis. The US economic system has been disgraced and many are turning more to the French/German(/Russian) system with more regulation.
- China is the 2nd economic power (after US), 3rd military power (after US and Russia (http://www.globalfirepower.com/)), has largest population.
Countries going up
China: The way I see it, China is obviously a rising star. It has a rapidly growing military, economy, etc. It's the #3 military power, with a rather weak navy but good progress in the air force sector to balance that out (though, I must say, they just stole 90% of their designs from Russia). However, it's facing a couple of problems: It's population is paving the way for a food crisis in about twenty years, its economic growth is largely at the expense of the environment, and its now the #1 polluter in the world. Additionally, its growth is largely reliant on the US buying its products. China has suffered economically this crisis greatly, and the quarter's economic growth was 2% instead of the pre-crisis 12%. Some say that such a shift may motivate the people of China to start revolting - I partly agree, but don't think much will come of it.
Russia: Also rapidly rising. Averaging an economic growth of about 7% per year, Russia's the third fastest growing major power right now. It's restoring its military (which was 2nd in the world anyway), brushing off its nuclear arsenals, etc. However, again, a ton of problems: Russia is facing what can accurately be described a health crisis. Average male lifespan is 60 years and women is 73 years. The major causes are smoking and drinking, though I also think that a lot of it has got to do with things like horrible roads (You guys should really go to St. Petersburg. I'm scared to cross some streets.). Russia is now in an economic recession because of greatly lowered gas prices, though once the economic crisis worldwide is over and energy goes back up in price it's expected to resume growth. Companies like Gazprom have lost almost half of their value on the stock market. One of the things that makes it a powerful player in Europe is that Europe gets about a 3rd of its gas and oil supplies from Russia. A key geopolitical factor that keeps the EU or NATO from doing anything. And, the thing I'm pissed at Putin at is that he's focusing so little energy on social problems and so much on nuclear. We already know you can reduce anyone to dust.
India: Another rising star. A 9% annual economic growth, fourth powerful military. India's having major military ties with Russia and is buying billions worth of tanks and planes from it, as well as developing together - such as the Brahmos missile and a new 5-Gen plane to match the F-22. Facing problems largely the same as China but to a worse degree: It doesn't have enough wealth to spread evenly amoung its 1 billion+ inhabitants. As a result, India's population is generally poor and its a favorite spot for outsourcing. It has a poor life expectancy, 64 years. It's a powerful player on the world front but has rather poor folk. Growth stopped in wake of crisis.
Brazil: A rather weak military power (9th) and also ninth largest economy, growing at a rate of 5% annually. Brazil also recently found a gigantic oil reserve which could make it a powerful exporter, fueling its rise. It has an average life span of 74 years, and is a very ethnically diverse society. It has a population of 180 million, which is a good number for its size and economy. Overall, I'd say this is the most balanced country on this list without any major problems. Good health, good demographics, good economy, good military. This is in my opinion pretty much the only 'neutral' power if a new Cold War broke out. It's mixing both sides. Growth effectively stopped in wake of crisis.
Collectively, these four countries are known as the BRIC countries, and they've been somewhat maneuvering themselves to be the new centers of power this century. Brazil is the least of them, India and Russia have their fields of power and China is #1. However, I'll note that Russia'll probably remain a close #3 in the 21st century, maneuvering between the United States and China and tipping the weight as required. It has ginormous energy reserves, the most higher-education-graduates in Europe, the most powerful Eurasian military and second most active military industry (Stupid Chinese keep taking our planes and naming them J-something). India, on the other hand, will probably be a powerful economic power but weak in other areas, and Brazil's relatively modest growth would leave it on the same level as India, but with a generally more balanced resume.
Others
Another possible power is the European Union. Collectively, it has a larger economy and population then the US, though I imagine a slightly weaker scientific and technological base. Military spending is pretty bad - even though the EU has a stronger combined economy, it has around $300 billion spend anually on defense, compared to $700 billion in US. However, the economies grow very slowly - the EU grows at maybe 3% per year, and the EU is currently in a recession. One of the things that really make the EU a weak world player is how every member country is so independent. Russia and the US in particular have several 'partner states' in the EU which can stop decisionmaking from happening. The presidency is rotated between leaders of member countries, which is pretty idiotic. Six months per. One of the few chances at the EU coordinating its movements to make it closer to a federation instead of a confederation (and a superpower instead of an easily-manipulated power) is the Treaty of Lisbon, which is essentially made to do just that. However, not all member states have agreed yet. I think Ireland was only one to say no, actually. Anyway, currently the EU is manipulated by the US via the UK and Eastern Europe, while Russia has particularly close ties to Germany (gas buddies) and others with Cyprus, France and Italy.
The United States is going down from its status of superpower. The economic crisis made the world doubt the power of the 'no regulation' things favored by the US and UK in favor of French and German regulated systems. It retains #1 military power in world by far and probably will for a long time. It also has, so far, the largest economy in the world, though China could surpass it eventually. I see it rather likely, however, that if this crisis continues that there could be some economic crisis. The US is actually 'using' about 50% of all the dollars in the world right now, the rest being held in the reserves of other countries or in circulation elsewhere. If faith in the US goes down and those dollars head back home, inflation. It has a good population for its economy, high average life span, etc. Its health sector is fine. Going through a real estate crisis. The US is losing a lot of its 'integrity' in other countries, in part because of the administrations idiocy (Rice & Bush: In the 21st century, states do not invade other sovereign states), in part of the economic crisis. The military is stretched in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the US is paying maybe $10 billion per year in Iraq alone. It's yearly economy growth is about 2% per year, which is low. Incidentally, most of Europe is similarly bad in the economy growth right now. The EU is 3.1%. The US has 25% of the world GDP and more then 50% of the world military spending, which really can't continue forever.
Additional Interesting Happenings
Conflict between Iceland and the United Kingdom over Iceland's financial crisis and how it affected UK... stuff.
Riots in Greece over the death of a single boy.
IMF bailouts of several countries, from Iceland to Belarus.
Israel-Hamas conflict in the Gaza Strip.
I'll add to this list as I see more stuff.
What you nubs are going to do
Well, discuss what you think the world will look like in ten, twenty or whatever years. Will the US suffer an economic crisis with 200% inflation, will it not, will China become #1 and the world heads for Cold War v2.0, etc. I'm just interested in what you folks think about the world. You must have some opinions. And come on, this has to be more exciting then religion.
Disclaimer:
Apparently.... err.. I shouldn't post, but I assume that that's not what Dapper really meant. He doesn't seem to like old topics brought back, but apparently wasting more space by creating another topic and increasing confusion thereof is better... rules are weird. Anyway, I PM'd dapper about reposting this, he didn't answer, so... yeah.
Post has been edited 3 time(s), last time on Dec 31 2008, 9:09 pm by Centreri.
None.
