TRACKSIDE

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The Idea
Continuously betting on the same number, while increasing bet so that the winnings will exceed the total amount that has been bet. Therefore a profit will be made with a higher overall probability.

Example:
COIN FLIP!
Trackside explains on their website that after 5 flips of a coin you may end up with 5 heads, and then the next flip will still be %50. That is true. However, the probability of that happening is low. If you bet Tails every time for those 5 flips, the chances of tails being flipped at least once is more than 50%. It will be around 90%.
Every possible outcome for 5 Flips of a coin is shown below:

Out of 32 possible outcomes, there is 1 possibility that there were no Tails flipped. Therefore 31/32 chances of winning = 96.875%

Trackside Fixed Dividends: Trackside Dividends

Now bringing that same idea into Trackside, the continuous betting table would look like the following:
Following guidelines (Using #1 since probability is highest at roughly 20%):
Increasing the bet by $5 each time.
1) Based on a $5 minimum bet.
2) Chances of winning is roughly 20%.
3) Payout is $4 for every $1 bet.

As you can see, the amount of the actual winnings slightly increases, then decreases into a loss if you do end up winning at that race. So to keep the wins at a positive amount, increase the bets by a bit more instead.

The same idea here, but with a more steady total wins:


It will be time consuming, but if you have enough money to keep you going, it will end up in a high possibility of winning.
Given that case you are putting $150 on the line for a higher chance of winning $15. If you have more money to have a cushion with, then the chances are really high.

Would using this method after a stretch of consecutive losses for #1 improve the chances of winning?
Is this something that would work?

Post has been edited 1 time(s), last time on May 6 2011, 9:45 pm by Test.

I am completely baffled by what you are saying, but I think you are referring to the old standard "trick" of winning at a casino game, such as roulette. The so-called strategy is this:

You have a roulette wheel with, say, an 18/37 chance of coming up red, with payout odds of 1:1. Start with the (minimum) bet of $1. Each time you lose, double your bet and bet on red again until you win. If you win, restart your bet at $1. Note that for a given time when you win, if this is your nth game since your last win, you will have lost 2ⁿ - 1 dollars over the course of those previous losses, and you will be betting 2ⁿ dollars. Now, when you win, your winnings (above your bet) are also 2ⁿ dollars, which leads to a profit of $1 for the cycle. You can keep repeating this cycle, and since you are bound to win eventually (especially when the odds of winning are close to 50%), you should be able to make an endless amount of money.

If you're clever, you might see how this works.

The Catch

You can only turn a profit if you have an infinite amount of money. Otherwise, while you are usually going to make money, there is always a small chance (namely (19/37)^m) that you will have to wait m rounds before you win, where we here take m to be such that 2^m is larger than your cash stake, for any finite stake. In this case, you now have zero money since you lost it all, so you're broke and done. It can be mathematically shown that your expected value when including this small chance of going broke is still negative; you have just transformed the game to having a large chance of winning a small amount, and a small chance of losing a large amount, but you still lose, on average. Only if your stake is infinite is the probability of going broke exactly zero.
Test